Liberal support skyrockets in Winnipeg, Manitoba: poll
A new poll shows that the federal Liberal party has upended the political landscape in Winnipeg over the past three months, vaulting from third place to first.
The Free Press-Probe Research poll released Thursday shows the Liberals under newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney hold a commanding lead over both the Conservatives and NDP.
Carney is expected to ask the Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament Sunday and call a spring election.
The Free Press-Probe Research poll found Liberal support in Winnipeg has jumped from 24 per cent in December to 54 per cent among decided and leaning voters, the highest polling level the party has seen in years; in the 2021 federal election the Liberals tallied 29 per cent to win four of the eight seats in the city.
And the red wave of renewed support doesn’t stop at the Perimeter Highway. The poll found that across the province 44 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Manitoba would cast their ballots for Liberal candidates.
The party was sitting at just 19 per cent in Manitoba in December.
The Conservatives, under Leader Pierre Poilievre, have slid to 31 per cent in Winnipeg, a 12 per cent drop.
That means the Liberals are now polling 11 per cent higher in the city than the Tories were at their peak in December, just prior to Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he was stepping down as party leader.
Across the province, the Tories are just behind the Liberals with 42 per cent, down from 52 per cent — the party’s highest level of support since the 2021 election — in December.
The Liberal party’s gains in both Winnipeg and Manitoba appear to have come at the NDP’s expense.
The NDP’s support is now at nine per cent in both Winnipeg and across the province, a plunge of 20 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively, since December.
“The question for the next month is whether this new life for the Liberals has staying power,” said Mary Agnes Welch, a Probe Research partner.
“Can the Liberals keep the momentum they have in Manitoba and, especially, Winnipeg?”
Welch said the numbers are so dismal for the NDP that the party could, potentially, be in danger of losing the three seats it currently holds in Manitoba — two in Winnipeg and one in the North.
Winnipeg Centre, a longtime NDP stronghold, is currently held by MP Leah Gazan.
“It is really hard to imagine the NDP losing there, but you see this change and decline of NDP support in Winnipeg — especially in the inner city,” Welch said. “It is a hard election to predict.”
Eight of Manitoba’s 14 federal seats are inside Winnipeg or include areas inside city limits.
The Winnipeg and Manitoba poll mirrors national numbers in recent weeks that have shown rising support for the Liberals and a steady downward trend for the Tories. The Liberal party got a jump in support in the wake of Carney’s March 9 leadership victory.
Winnipeg South Liberal MP Terry Duguid, who Carney appointed environment and climate change minister said the poll results mirror what he is hearing at the door.
“I’m certainly detecting that Mr. Carney’s message, the prime minister’s message, is being received very well,” Duguid said.
“His message of unity and bringing people together and, particularly, standing up to Trump and standing up for Canada. It is certainly very positive at the doors, and more so than it was a few months ago. I would acknowledge that.”
If the NDP is in trouble, including in Winnipeg Centre, Gazan didn’t appear worried Thursday.
“I hate to sound like a politician, but the only poll that counts is on election day,” she said. “The polls have never reflected the votes the last two times I’ve run.”
Gazan said she knocks on door between elections and the response has been positive thus far.
“We’ve had record (federal) investments in the riding — we’ve got a lot to celebrate,” she said. “That happens when you have a MP working side-by-side with community groups.”
Tory MPs Raquel Dancho (Kildonan-St. Paul) and Marty Morantz (Winnipeg West) could not be reached for comment.
The poll results also revealed:
• the Liberals lead by wide margins in all parts of Winnipeg;
• in rural and northern Manitoba, the Liberals have regained their 2021 voter base and are reclaiming half of the people who voted NDP in the last election while laying claim to 18 per cent of Tory voters.
• Liberal support is highest — 60 per cent — among women aged 55 and older, and the party has the highest level of support from women of all ages.
• Conservative support is highest — 62 per cent — from men aged 18 to 34, and men aged 55 and older (53 per cent). But among men aged 35-54, the Liberals enjoy 49 per cent support compared to 45 per cent who support the Tories.
Kelly Saunders, an associate political science professor at Brandon University, said Canadians’ concerns arising from the turmoil caused by U.S. President Donald Trump have been a gift for the Liberals.
“Between the election of Trump and the decision of Justin Trudeau to step down, it really was the perfect storm for the Liberals to try to crawl out of the hole they had been in for the last couple of years, at least to this point,” Saunders said.
“It speaks to the larger volatility and fragility of our electoral politics these days and how things can turn around on a dime.”
Saunders said she believes Tory seats outside of Winnipeg are safe, but she agrees rising Liberal fortunes here could put the squeeze on the NDP.
“I wouldn’t really, at this stage, be placing bets on any of these ridings,” she said. “There are some that I think are pretty safe, certainly for the Conservatives outside of Winnipeg, but once you get beyond that it is a bit of a crapshoot.
“We always say elections matter, but this will be an election which really matters.”
The poll of 1,000 Manitobans was taken March 4-16 and is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 per cent 95 per cent of the time.
Kevin Rollason
Reporter
Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.
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