Opinion: Canada can be seen as Trump’s Ukraine in new imperial era

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Trump’s threat to annex Greenland, invade Panama and absorb Canada as the 51st state exposes the risks of integration into the continental economy.

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Trump’s predatory politics and his psychopathic narcissism helped build his ethno-nationalist base. His increasingly expansionist rhetoric is reminiscent of old-world imperialism.

There is no regard for American democratic norms, or international law, or the UN Charter, which affirms the sovereignty of nations; not even for obligations to protect other NATO members.

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Trump’s MAGA doctrine might never have gained traction without the impacts of globalization in several swing states, nor without Trump’s defence of the fossil fuel industry in the face of climate science and the climate crisis.

That 90 million eligible voters did not vote shows the U.S. vulnerability to his polarizing, authoritarian takeover.

The changing geo-political context also propelled Trump. Both declining super powers have been moving towards fortress mentality, with Putin’s attempt to regain Soviet territories, especially Ukraine, and Trump’s border wall and his desire to expand military-industrial control over Canada.

In this sense, Canada can be seen as Trump’s Ukraine.

In more stable times, continental integration was seen to have mutual benefits. The huge dependence of our much smaller economy on exports to the U.S., however, makes us more vulnerable.

Eighty per cent of Alberta oil still goes to the U.S., where it gets refined and gains market value, while the U.S. has now become the world’s largest oil producer. Water, not oil, will likely become Trump’s target.

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We are not trading equals; the U.S. economy is 10 times larger and would not face the same risks from a protracted tariff war.

Nevertheless, Trump deceptively invents a narrative to justify any future coercion. The U.S. had a $32-billion trade deficit with Canada in 2023, much smaller than with other trading partners. Making America sound like a victim, Trump erroneously inflates and redefines this as a $200-billion U.S. subsidy to Canada.

This also distracts from our enormous consumption of U.S. digital services, and the massive profits from the value adding done in the U.S. with most of our exports.

The contradictory responses of Canada’s premiers showcase our vulnerability. Defending their American-dependent resource economies, some conservative Premiers have relentlessly picked away at our federation.

They try to appease Trump’s border exaggerations, ignoring the threat from Trump’s promised deportations and the U.S.’s lax gun controls.

Premier Danielle Smith has been particularly transparent in supporting MAGA. No reluctance cozying up to insurrectionist-apologist Tucker Carlson as they shared a Calgary stage in 2024.

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She visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago palace, as a guest of Kevin O’Leary, who unabashedly advocates economic/currency union, which would subvert our fiscal and monetary independence. Premier Smith will rightly be seen as Trump’s Trojan horse.

Facing such dire conditions, we must remember Canada’s rich history defending our independence. Canada survived the American Revolution and the expansionist Manifest Destiny. Canadian nationalism grew in the 1960s, when U.S. control of our economy increased.

Quebec nationalism grew along with widespread support for positive neutralism during the nuclear arms race. This persisted with Canada’s refusal to send troops to aid the U.S. war in Vietnam.

This momentum changed in the 1980s with the shift towards free trade, privatization and deregulation. The national chauvinism of that time sugar-coated our own colonial history. An all-party consensus that neoliberal continentalism served our national interest soon took hold.

We started looking like a branch plant petro state. Our federation was weakened with the aid of myopic politicians that gained power defending their continentalist economies. The separatist card has often been played, including in the West, in this dangerous gamble with our future.

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There have been attempts to forge a new path, to create an ecologically sustainable, more self-sufficient, society, that values human welfare and does not fuel the climate crisis.

With the very real threat to our independence, the struggle for climate justice, for quality of life and Canadian sovereignty will have to become one and the same.

Jim Harding is a retired professor of environmental and justice studies. His book The Long Sixties will be published by Fernwood in 2025.

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